Category: model

  • A new model accurately predicts the movement of elite athletes to catch the ball in parabolic flight

    A new model accurately predicts the movement of elite athletes to catch the ball in parabolic flight

    How does a tennis player like Carlos Alcaraz decide where to run to return Novak Djokovic’s ball by just looking at the ball’s initial position? These behaviours, so common in elite athletes, are difficult to explain with current computational models, which assume that the players must continuously follow the ball with their eyes. Now, researchers of the University of Barcelona have developed a model that, by combining optical variables with environmental factors such as gravity, accurately predicts how a person will move to catch a moving object just from an initial glance. These results, published in the journal Royal Society Open Science, could have potential applications in fields such as robotics, sports training or even space exploration.

    The paper addresses the outfielder problem, which refers to the baseball player who stands in the outfield to catch the ball after it is hit. It is a classic challenge in physics and the neuroscience of movement, used to explore how humans and animals predict movements in a dynamic environment and how automated systems can be designed to mimic them.

    Joan López-Moliner, professor at the UB’s Faculty of Psychology and member of the Institute of Neurosciences (UBneuro), has led the research and affirms that “faced with this problem, current models are based on guiding locomotion by continuously looking at the ball, while normally the elite athlete can run towards the ball without looking at it.” “Moreover, — he adds — these models do not allow predictions of where the ball will go regarding the observer.” The initial study was part of the doctoral thesis conducted by Borja Aguado, co-author and former member of the group, who, after a stay in Darmstadt (Germany), is now a researcher at the University of Vic.

    The model integrates prior knowledge of the ball’s gravity and physical size into the visual information received in real time. “The model provides live signals that indicate the predicted position of the ball’s fall and the time remaining until it arrives, considering different gravity conditions. This makes it possible to predict precisely how a player will move to catch it, from the very beginning of the flight,” describes López-Moliner, who also coordinates the Vision and Control of Action research group.

    Despite the importance of gravity in anticipating trajectories, this is the first time this factor has been included in such a model. “This omission has overlooked the substantial influence that gravity exerts on the trajectory, which reflects a gap in the way existing models take into account environmental constants,” says the UB professor.

    Moreover, the previous models cannot explain why humans perceive whether a ball is within reach or not to decide whether to start running. “Our model does account for this, as it indicates where the object will go regarding the player,” says the researcher.

    Experiments with virtual reality

    To validate the model, the researchers conducted experiments in an immersive virtual reality environment, in which each participant — wearing goggles and holding a virtual reality device in their hand — had to move to the position where they thought a virtual ball would land. The controlled environment allowed a variety of gravity and ball size conditions to be simulated, showing that the empirical trajectories, movement patterns and temporal responses matched the model’s predictions. “Our model accurately predicts the trajectories observed in the different conditions by the participants. The results underline the importance of integrating environmental constants, such as gravity, to better understand how humans interact with the world around us,” says the researcher.

    Virtual training for athletes and astronauts

    The new model could be a basis for the future development of various practical applications, for example in sports training. “On the one hand, since the model includes several components — such as visual information or gravity — it could be applied in training or virtual simulation platforms. In this way, the degree of sensitivity of a person — such as an elite athlete — to the different components could be seen, or they could be trained to process and use the visually relevant information to optimize performance,” says López-Moliner.

    Moreover, the fact that the model can consider various types of gravity could also have applications in the aerospace sector. “The model can be applied in environments with different gravities and can potentially predict the performance with which a person — for example, the astronaut on the space station — would interact with moving objects,” says the professor.

    Research with artificial neural networks

    The researchers are already working on the next phase: implementing the model in artificial neural networks, computational systems that mimic the functioning of neurons in the human brain. Their goal is to compare the performance of humans and artificial networks. “This would allow us to have a clearer idea of how the computations are implemented at the neural level, as we now have a model at computational scale, but not the neural implementation in an artificial neural network. This knowledge could have clear applications in the field of robotics,” concludes López-Moliner.

  • New AI model measures how fast the brain ages

    New AI model measures how fast the brain ages

    A new artificial intelligence model measures how fast a patient’s brain is aging and could be a powerful new tool for understanding, preventing and treating cognitive decline and dementia, according to USC researchers.

    The first-of-its-kind tool can non-invasively track the pace of brain changes by analyzing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Faster brain aging closely correlates with a higher risk of cognitive impairment, said Andrei Irimia, associate professor of gerontology, biomedical engineering, quantitative & computational biology and neuroscience at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology and visiting associate professor of psychological medicine at King’s College London.

    “This is a novel measurement that could change the way we track brain health both in the research lab and in the clinic,” he said. “Knowing how fast one’s brain is aging can be powerful.”

    Irimia is the senior author of the study that describes the new model and its predictive power; the study was published February 24, 2025 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Biological brain age versus chronological age

    Biological age is distinct from an individual’s chronological age, Irimia said. Two people who are the same age based on their birthdate can have very different biological ages due to how well their body is functioning and how “old” the body’s tissues appear to be at a cellular level.

    Some common measures of biological age use blood samples to measure epigenetic aging and DNA methylation, which influences the roles of genes in the cell. However, measuring biological age from blood samples is a poor strategy for measuring the brain’s age, Irimia explained. The barrier between the brain and the bloodstream prevents blood cells from crossing into the brain, such that a blood sample from one’s arm does not directly reflect methylation and other aging-related processes in the brain. Conversely, taking a sample directly from a patient’s brain is a much more invasive procedure, making it unfeasible to measure DNA methylation and other aspects of brain aging directly from living human brain cells.

    Previous research by Irimia and colleagues highlighted the potential of MRI scans to non-invasively measure the biological age of the brain. The earlier model used AI analysis to compare a patient’s brain anatomy to data compiled from the MRI scans of thousands of people of various ages and cognitive health outcomes.

    However, the cross-sectional nature of analyzing one MRI scan to estimate brain age had major limitations, he said. While the previous model could, for instance, tell if a patient’s brain was ten years “older” than their calendar age, it couldn’t provide info on whether that additional aging occurred earlier or later in their life, nor could it indicate whether brain aging was speeding up.

    A more accurate picture of brain aging

    A newly developed three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) offers a more precise way to measure how the brain ages over time. Created in collaboration with Paul Bogdan, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering and holder of the Jack Munushian Early Career Chair at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering, the model was trained and validated on more than 3,000 MRI scans of cognitively normal adults.

    Unlike traditional cross-sectional approaches, which estimate brain age from one scan at a single time point, this longitudinal method compares baseline and follow-up MRI scans from the same individual. As a result, it more accurately pinpoints neuroanatomic changes tied to accelerated or decelerated aging. The 3D-CNN also generates interpretable “saliency maps,” which indicate the specific brain regions that are most important for determining the pace of aging, Bogdan said.

    When applied to a group of 104 cognitively healthy adults and 140 Alzheimer’s disease patients, the new model’s calculations of brain aging speed closely correlated with changes in cognitive function tests given at both time points.

    “The alignment of these measures with cognitive test results indicates that the framework may serve as an early biomarker of neurocognitive decline,” Bogdan said. “Moreover, it demonstrates its applicability in both cognitively normal individuals and those with cognitive impairment.”

    He added that the model has the potential to better characterize both healthy aging and disease trajectories, and its predictive power could one day be applied to assessing which treatments would be more effective based on individual characteristics.

    “Rates of brain aging are correlated significantly with changes in cognitive function,” Irimia said. “So, if you have a high rate of brain aging, you’re more likely to have a high rate of degradation in cognitive function, including memory, executive speed, executive function, and processing speed. It’s not only an anatomic measure; the changes we see in the anatomy are associated with changes we see in the cognition of these individuals.”

    Looking ahead

    In the study, Irimia and coauthors also note how the new model was able to distinguish different rates of aging across various regions of the brain. Delving into these differences -including how they vary based on genetics, environment, and lifestyle factors — could provide insight into how different pathologies develop in the brain, Irimia said.

    The study also demonstrated that the pace of brain aging in certain regions differed between the sexes, which might shed light onto why men and women face different risks for neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer’s, he added.

    Irimia said he is also excited about the potential for the new model to identify people with faster-than-normal brain aging before they show any symptoms of cognitive impairment. While new drugs targeting Alzheimer’s have been introduced, their efficacy has been less than researchers and doctors have hoped for, potentially because patients might not be starting the drug until there is already a great deal of Alzheimer’s pathology present in the brain, he explained.

    “One thing that my lab is very interested in is estimating risk for Alzheimer’s; we’d like to one day be able to say, ‘Right now, it looks like this person has a 30% risk for Alzheimer’s.’ We’re not there yet, but we’re working on it,” Irimia said. “I think this kind of measure will be very helpful to produce variables that are prognostic and can help to forecast Alzheimer’s risk. That would be really powerful, especially as we start developing potential drugs for prevention.”